The stock of Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $209.19 per share and the market cap of $13.7 billion, Advance Auto Parts stock appears to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Advance Auto Parts is shown in the chart below.
Because Advance Auto Parts is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 5% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 3.12% annually over the next three to five years.
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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Advance Auto Parts has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.29, which is worse than 67% of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Advance Auto Parts at 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Advance Auto Parts is fair. This is the debt and cash of Advance Auto Parts over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Advance Auto Parts has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $10.7 billion and earnings of $9.33 a share. Its operating margin is 8.60%, which ranks better than 74% of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Advance Auto Parts at 6 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Advance Auto Parts over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Advance Auto Parts is 5%, which ranks better than 69% of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 7.1%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical.
One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Advance Auto Parts’s ROIC is 10.31 while its WACC came in at 7.75. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Advance Auto Parts is shown below:
In short, the stock of Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. To learn more about Advance Auto Parts stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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